Northwest Indiana Discussion

The current population of the City of Chicago is 2.715 million. This figure is exclusive of the suburbs. By contrast, the population of Lake County - the entire county - is 400,000 plus. Throw in Porter County's 60K, and the minuscule census results from Jasper & Newton counties, it is still under 600,000. (This is just raw population, not a net figure of actual riders. My guess is, like the argument used to inflate bus usage, the ridership figures reflect the projected number of rides, not riders)

Yet we have the Times' Keith Benmen carrying water for the powers that be who desire a big chunk of the county income tax allocated to cities and towns their shares for economic development.

Whatever the merits of the proposal, one that Visclosky and the Times fear putting to referendum vote, the metric used to frame and define it are propagandistic and false. Note, the project is touted in terms of "potential" based on a study commissioned by South Shore. These projections are fictions and a deliberate inflation of any realistic probability.

From the Times' lead paragraphs today:

"In a renewed push to extend the South Shore commuter rail line, proponents are touting its unparalleled economic development potential and saying no new taxes will be needed to build it.

"Their enthusiasm is boosted in part by a new study commissioned by the South Shore's operator that finds an extension to Dyer would result in 5,600 new daily riders hauling about $147 million per year in paychecks back to Northwest Indiana from Chicago.

(This is fictional projection)

"That economic benefit does not even count the jobs that would be created by those South Shore commuters spending their checks in the region. Those jobs COULD total more than 5,000 if the rail line someday reached its ultimate goal of Lowell and Valparaiso.

"That means extending the South Shore to Dyer, and then to Lowell and Valparaiso, could easily outperform the economic impact of any single project since the establishment of Bethlehem Steel here in the 1960s.

"Northwest Indiana has an opportunity to lay the foundation for transformational infrastructure investment by extending the South Shore line," said U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky, D-Merrillville. "This is a generational opportunity to create jobs. The time is now."
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Finally, the real rub. It is a construction industry project, irrespective of the subsequent consideration for future maintenance and operation costs and before/after new generations of White flight fully gut the south shore cities and towns.

It sounds a lot like the solid waste-to-fuel project touted by Gerry Scheub and the construction industry. This project was so bogus it was an insult, yet Scheub controlled the solid waste board Democrats and perpetuated the propsal, literally for years, irrespective of whether the project was actually viable on the scale on which it was proposed. Here the SouthShore extension seeds the lending market for bankers and subsidizes for real estate developers' the cost of providing infrastructure supporting and encouraging more flight to the suburbs.

The article concludes with: "Still fresh in everyone's mind are the ill-fated November 2009 voter referendums to create a Regional Transportation District that could have aided in extending the South Shore. The plan was soundly defeated in votes in Porter and St. Joseph counties. In Lake and LaPorte, county officials simply called off the votes."

"No referendum will be needed this time, in part because of the no new tax pledge."

They've completely circumvented the People's input by emphasizing only start up costs, not long term future operation and maintenance.

Most troubling is the apparent disregard of the public will on new spending. We were told we had to get an income tax passed because we could not even pay for the bare minimum necessities. Now Mike Repay is saying the county can toss 2 or 3 mil into the fire from the county income tax every year. Many methods of deception are used in the argument for expansion. First 5600 NEW riders. There is no way to "know" this, it's all a guess, and the number is function of the number of train trips proposed and the train capacity. Then, a person who rides into Chicago in the morning is a rider and that same person is counted again as a rider when they come to dyer in the evening. The report also conflates the initial costs with the over optimistic future expansions benefits to points east, leading you to believe it cost effective. It goes on. The initial costs are provided by a multi-national engineering/contractor who stand to profit if construction proceeds. They have an incentive to give low initial estimates, to get the ball rolling, which will follow with higher bids then even higher change orders and cost overruns. One last point to the dishonesty of the story. It was stated a new dyer stop alone would have riders bring 147 million back in paychecks. Also stated was that the state of indiana would see 5 million in sales and income taxes from those paychecks. The math on that doesn't work and it tells me that the numbers are fiction.

One of the major problems is the trunk lines into Chicago. One of the Chicago papers cited a study on the problems associated with the SS interfacing with the IC/Metra lines.

The Randolph St. Station does not have the additional capacity, physical space to store waiting trains.

Then the electrical power needed to provide movement for the additional trains is another problem. The IC lines act as the neck of a funnel restricting use.

These plans will need to be paid for, with increases in the Lake County Income Tax, which will grow to 3% to 4% with in the next couple of years.

The true problem, is the elected officials feeding at the food trough.


http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/illinois/wire-problems-delaying-metra-south-shore-trains-at-rd-st/article_9247d97c-e0a5-53ca-8aa8-0fee4d4c55b9.html
http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/story/22612201/south-shore-trains-delayed-due-to-energy-transfer-problem
http://www.my65orlando.com/story/22612201/south-shore-trains-delayed-due-to-energy-transfer-problem
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20140110/NEWS10/140119979/south-shore-train-line-blames-rider-drop-on-slow-chicago-job-growth

Nice framing of the situation. My only reservation about it all is - sometimes these guys are right. Still, I'm leery at the hard sell. There is something really subversively totalitarian about it, with respect to the past referendum in in 2009. The Times' propaganda here is paranoiac.

What jades me is the utter propagandistic overkill by the TIMES. You'd think they were trying convince themselves and not the readers. So much propaganda. It is paranoia. Meanwhile, everybody pretty much knows why the trains are wanted: it's a Trojan Horse for the construction industry. I'm okay with that, as i'm Keynesian/Reichean in terms stimulating the economy with government funds.

The real problem, though, is the SouthShore is a government subsidized transportation service. Should the expansion go in, there will an ever higher subsidy price/cost.

We were on the same train up until Keynes, Neo. I alighted at the station before that. Deficit spending can smooth out a cyclical low point in an economy, but we are in a secular decline, the tide of which we cannot fight with Keynes' prescription. No, Keynes right now would be like a degenerate gambler who just knows he can get it back if only he can play a few more hands. Trillions in government debt provided stimus no doubt. But the kickstart hasn't and won't materialize. No the secular decline will only conclude when a cheap abundant energy source is developed. Do you think you'll live to see fusion? Also I want to add that productive government stimulus spending is preferred to non productive and crony capitalism. Seems we have a class of people who know how to manipulate the levers of government to their personal benefit. We might as well pay people to dig holes and others to fill them again. At least there are no maintenance costs when they're done.

To each his own. There is no government absent credit. That deficit spending ensued isnt so much Keynes funding of economic stimuli, tax legislation was part of the deal for the GOP post WWII.

Nor can anyone rationally deny the critique of Robert Reich re gross economic inequality and wage adjustments needed to offset the negative impact low wages on a market driven economy.

Anyway...we dont have to agree on every jot and tittle to align on large issues subsuming smaller concerns.

What do they mean, extend the South Shore to Lowell !! They haven't completed that project? Goodness sake, I have a Hammond Times from the 60's that said it would up and running in three years. Damn it, here I've been waiting all this time and the train never shows up. Now I know the answer. Now on a serious note. Here we go on again about this raiway extension. Then again six million surveys will be needed, before they even get it started. I wonder who will be selected as a consultant? Probably the guy that consults on the E911 project for the county, that wouldn't know a police communications center from a hog pen.

Though he can't even count, we can count on sparks to try to add irrelevant referendums to the discussion. Transportation referendums have failed whether they be bus, train, or new boards. The polling and sentiment so bad in lake county that it was scrapped to spare an embarrassing defeat. Sales and income taxes exceed 10% in these parts. The earning and expenditure of 147 million would be much more than the 5 million stated. Take a digit sparks and rotate on it.