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 Post subject: The PA Primary Showdown
PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 2:35 pm 
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I was gonna post this on the other board but it's been down since about noon. Sure seems to have a lot of problems of late.

I have to laugh because I have heard a lot of people who are not die hard to either Dem candidate that it doesn't even matter - they are voting McCain in November.

And as sick as most folks are of this titt for tatt Dem primary they can hardly wait for this darned primary season to be finally over! I think the Dems ONLY chance to win (short of McCain turning to dust) is to pick an entirely different candidate at the convention. Maybe some of you have friends or acquaintances in MI but lifelong Dems I have talked to in FL are still super miffed at their primary votes not getting counted and they aren't too opposed to voting McCain in protest. And as I type this Fox News is reporting a new call for Howard Dean to step down from the Clinton camp over a debate cancelation.

BTW, I hear Melloncamp is gonna be singin' Little Pink Houses for both Obama & Clinton this week to support the Dems. Told ya they're desperate! From the pink house to the White House? :D

So with like 4 hours before the polls close I am gonna put it all on the line and predict Clinton by over 30% of the popular vote and in IN Clinton by over 10% unless in PA Clinton wins by less than 10% or loses. In that case I would expect only die hard Dems and energized black voters to come out in some numbers to make a showing but many from other groups staying home.

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If you voted for the Dems don't be surprised when things don't turn out quite as you were led to expect. Some might call it pure Marxism. But the problem with Obama economics is there's not enough money in the world to make it work.


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 Post subject: Re: The PA Primary Showdown
PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 5:39 pm 
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I agree...the only one acting like a president should, is McCain.

The rest is a circus.


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 Post subject: Re: The PA Primary Showdown
PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 5:53 pm 
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And I see old Bill is caught in another flat out lie today about a comment he made on the race card. :P

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If you voted for the Dems don't be surprised when things don't turn out quite as you were led to expect. Some might call it pure Marxism. But the problem with Obama economics is there's not enough money in the world to make it work.


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 Post subject: Re: The PA Primary Showdown
PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:00 pm 
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Mirage wrote:

So with like 4 hours before the polls close I am gonna put it all on the line and predict Clinton by over 30% of the popular vote and in IN Clinton by over 10% unless in PA Clinton wins by less than 10% or loses. In that case I would expect only die hard Dems and energized black voters to come out in some numbers to make a showing but many from other groups staying home.

I have to laugh because once again you are showing that you don't have much grasp of the current political situation or the depth of the voter's dissatisfaction with the Republican party.
Voters are showing up in record #'s for a primary.
Latest AP report wrote:
For the first time in six weeks, the Democratic presidential nominating contest returned to the ballot box as voters across Pennsylvania turned out in record numbers on Tuesday to cast their judgment on Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.


Officials said the turnout was shaping up to at least double the 26 percent recorded in the 2004 primary, and perhaps approach that of a general election, even though there is no presidential contest on the Republican side. “It’s a crazy day,” said Stacy Sterner, chief clerk in Lehigh County, who noted that one polling place had 100 people waiting to vote when it opened at 7 a.m. Eastern time. “If I didn’t know better,” she said, “I would think it was November.”

It actually is November because whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be the next president of the United States.

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 Post subject: Re: The PA Primary Showdown
PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:13 pm 
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You must not get out of the Region too much. :lol:

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If you voted for the Dems don't be surprised when things don't turn out quite as you were led to expect. Some might call it pure Marxism. But the problem with Obama economics is there's not enough money in the world to make it work.


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 Post subject: Re: The PA Primary Showdown
PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:31 pm 
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You know, I'm watching the MSNBC coverage and according to Nora O'Donald's exit polls of the segments that favor Clinton they are saying it's about 30% give or take over Obama. But the big equalizer is Philadelphia going Obama.

Also that among early deciders 5 of 6 went to Obama and of later deciders 5 of 6 are going to Clinton.

This does not look good for Obama. If I understand these demographics right Obama is mainly just doing well with blacks for all practical purposes, and this after he outspent her 3:1. So while it's still early and they are still showing as neck & neck in total votes if these polls hold true Clinton could well still make the case that Obama is not electable and it could still all come down to Indiana to prove it one way or the other.

----------------------------------------

7:35 PM MSNBC is now calling it "too early to call," and that it was a change from too close to call, definitely implying that Clinton has the lead and they are fairly sure she will win pretty handily.

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If you voted for the Dems don't be surprised when things don't turn out quite as you were led to expect. Some might call it pure Marxism. But the problem with Obama economics is there's not enough money in the world to make it work.


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 Post subject: Re: The PA Primary Showdown
PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:07 pm 
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Mirage wrote:


So with like 4 hours before the polls close I am gonna put it all on the line and predict Clinton by over 30% of the popular vote and in IN Clinton by over 10% unless in PA Clinton wins by less than 10% or loses. In that case I would expect only die hard Dems and energized black voters to come out in some numbers to make a showing but many from other groups staying home.

It is a good thing for you that the Times forum is down because Clinton's 8% win is nothing close to the 30% you predicted. But as I have said before, you are not very good at predicting election outcomes.

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 Post subject: Re: The PA Primary Showdown
PostPosted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:11 am 
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Where do you get 8%? With 99% reporting it looks like 10% or more. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914

Actually I don't think I was off for the reasons I posted here and over there on TOB. But it's very telling that the reason Obama has not already clinched the nomination is because he can't win the big states. Didn't bother even being on the Michigan ballot, lost FL, OH, PA, NY, yada, yada. So if Hillary kicks butt in IN and at least wins in NC it's a whole new game!

If Obama thinks it's good enough to be president of the blacks and young college kids that's fine by me. In November we will be electing a President of the whole country. :smt004

Again, according to the exit pols she did get about 30% of most of her voter segments, which is a better indication of what working America is thinking. That's why Indiana now becomes so important. Will LC & St. Joseph counties be enough to to hand Obama Indiana? Or will Republicans cross the lines again to hand deliver the death blow to the Clinton campaign? I can hardly wait to see! :smt004

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If you voted for the Dems don't be surprised when things don't turn out quite as you were led to expect. Some might call it pure Marxism. But the problem with Obama economics is there's not enough money in the world to make it work.


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 Post subject: Re: The PA Primary Showdown
PostPosted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:59 am 
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i agree, Mirage.

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