LaughingAtLakeCo wrote:
If you are concerned about the loss of tax dollar--er, I mean revenues--you could work to rally all those "tax me more" types that showed up in Madison and Indianapolis. They sport signs to that effect and really seem committed to paying more taxes, but when push comes to shove, the complicated mechanics of writing out a check and mailing it to either the federal or state government seem to stymie them. If you could get just 100,000 taxpayers to send an extra dollar a day to Indianapolis, you'd more than offset "revenue losses" for at least two years at the new rates. I've even thought of an original slogan you could use: "It's only a dollar a day". Feel free to translate that into packs of cigarettes so LC residents can better comprehend the impact.
Who do you think or from what source do you think the 2% savings in corporate income tax will be replenished?
Grown men and women should be ashamed of pie-in-the sky thinking.
Tell me you're not that THICK! Because Indiana is already running on fumes.
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NWI/Gary Forecast 2011Donald A. Coffin, Ph.D.Associate Professor of Economics,
School of Business and Economics
Indiana University Northwest
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that the current recession began in December 2007 and that the recovery began in June 2009.1
There is widespread agreement that this has been the worst recession the U.S. economy has experienced since World War II, and the dimensions of the decline are striking. Between December 2007 and June 2009, employment in the United States declined by 5.3 percent, with a net loss of about 7.3 million jobs, and the unemployment rate rose from 5.0 percent to 9.5 percent.2 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined during this period (fourth quarter 2007 to second quarter 2009) by 4.1 percent (using chained dollars).
In northwest Indiana, employment fell 7.2 percent, a net loss of 20,800 jobs, as the unemployment rate rose from 4.6 percent to 10.6 percent. GDP data are not readily available for the local economy, but total wages paid to employees in the broader northwest Indiana region fell by 15.2 percent between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2009.3 It is clear that the recession hit northwest Indiana harder than it hit the nation.
Since the recovery began in June 2009,
employment nationally has
actually declined slightly (-0.25 percent), while the
unemployment rate has increased to 9.6 percent (from 9.5 percent). Nationally, GDP has increased by 3 percent (through the second quarter of 2010). Growth in GDP during the early stages of this recovery has been disappointing, but is comparable to growth coming out of the 1991 and 2001 recessions.
Local employment in northwest Indiana has actually grown in recent months, rising by 1.3 percent between July 2009 and September 2010; as with the nation,
however, this has not led to a decline in the unemployment rate, which is essentially unchanged (10.6 percent compared to 10.5 percent).
Total wages in the first quarter of 2010 (the most recent data available)
for the broader northwest Indiana region have continued to decline, down by 2.8 percent since the second quarter of 2009.
The last three years have been perhaps the most difficult period the U.S. economy has encountered since World War II, so the question is, “what we can expect going forward?â€
My expectation is that growth in employment in northwest Indiana will do what it has usually done over the past 20 years—underperform both the state and the nation. Income growth is likely to be slower as well.
Major job losses are likely to continue in manufacturing. We expect the loss of around 900 manufacturing jobs (-2.3 percent), with most of that in the iron and steel mill sector (a loss of 530 jobs, or -3.5 percent.).
Other sectors seem likely to shed jobs as well, although in smaller numbers (and as a smaller percentage of employment). Job losses seem likely in the utilities, transportation and warehousing; finance; and real estate sectors.
Government will not be a significant contributor to growth in the coming year.
Aside from the pressure that is growing to reduce the federal government’s budget deficit, federal government employment is fairly modest in northwest Indiana (and we expect a modest decline in it).
The state and many local governments are also under considerable pressure to reduce their spending levels in order to meet the mandate in the Indiana Constitution to have balanced budgets.
Thus, we expect only slight growth in state or local employment, with almost all of that concentrated in local public education. Overall, we expect government employment to grow by roughly 0.2 percent, about the same as overall employment.
According to Reuters, the consensus forecast for the U.S. unemployment rate by the end of 2011 is 9 percent.
Concluding RemarksThe recession hit northwest Indiana severely. Not only were job losses large, they were concentrated in the highest wage sectors of the economy (construction, manufacturing and finance). We expect growth in only one of these hard-hit sectors over the next year, and construction will remain severely below its potential.
Unless national economic growth is substantially more robust than expected, there is little reason to expect much upside to our forecast. The northwest Indiana economy will do better than it has done in 2009 or 2010, but the coming year will not bring a boom. What lies ahead is likely to be less unpleasant times, rather than a robust recovery.
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***This article defines northwest Indiana as the four-county Gary Metropolitan Division. The broader northwest Indiana region includes seven counties: Jasper, Lake, LaPorte, Newton, Porter, Pulaski, and Starke.